housing market

Housing Bubble Index Q2/2026: Housing shortage keeps prices stable

The severity of the housing market bubble risk continues to ease slightly: the rebound potential now stands at just 18% nationwide (Q2/2025: 20%, Q2/2023: 24%), and at 30% in the Top7 cities. This is driven by the ongoing rise in rents, which is underpinning purchase prices. The spread of the bubble risk is also easing slightly (-1 point), yet still affects 272 of 400 districts with moderate to high risk. Among the major cities, the picture varies widely: Dortmund shows only a low risk, whereas Hamburg and Bremen are rated as high risk and the remaining Top metros tend towards high risk.

Housing Price Index Q2/2026: "Frantic Standstill" on the Price Front

“There is currently a frantic standstill at the price front of the housing market,” says Dr Reiner Braun in his latest commentary on the Q2/2026 data of the empirica housing price index. Purchase prices show little movement nationwide, while only rents continue their steady rise.

Housing Bubble Index Q1/2026: It hinges on interest rates

The severity of the housing market bubble risk continues to ease slightly, as rents are currently rising faster than house prices in many areas. As a result, the potential for price falls is diminishing, albeit at a slower pace than immediately following the change in interest rates. The spread of the bubble is currently stagnating, and the number of districts at risk remains high.

Housing Price Index Q1/2026: Prices show no clear trend

Since interest rates began to rise, advertised sale prices have recovered somewhat, as there was a severe shortage of properties and new-build construction has slumped. Affordability has also improved since then: interest rates have fallen slightly and incomes have risen significantly. However, with the current surge in inflation, the situation is likely to deteriorate again in the short term.

empirica Vacancy Forecast: Between Scarcity and Oversupply

At the end of 2024, the German housing market recorded a total vacancy of around 1.7 million dwellings, corresponding to a vacancy rate of 4.0 per cent. Of the total 1.689 million vacant dwellings, 963,000 units were in apartment buildings and 727,000 in single-family and two-family houses. The situation remains particularly critical in regions experiencing population decline, where the vacancy rate could exceed the 20% threshold by the mid-2030s.

empirica Forecasts: New Data on Demand for New Buildings

According to the new empirica population forecast, the number of inhabitants will change from around 83.6 million in 2024 to 80.3 million in the lower variant and 86.3 million in the upper variant in 2045. The empirica demand forecast shows an annual demand for new construction of around 225,000 apartments for the period 2025-32. From the mid-2030s, demand will rise to around 260,000 units per year.

Housing Bubble Index Q4/2025: Rent rise eases bubble risk

Rising rents and a slump in new construction are slowing down the risk of a bubble, but housing prices are still not completely out of the woods. All sub-indices are declining. The sub-index for price-income (-2 points) shows the sharpest decline. In contrast to the last quarter, however, there are only moderate changes across all indices. The overall index declines marginally (-1 point).

First empirica housing market report: no recovery in sight

The independent economic and social science research and consulting institute empirica has published its first housing market report. It provides a comprehensive outlook on the housing market in 2026. The study focuses on demand, supply and price developments. New construction has collapsed, while rents are rising. Despite stagnating population figures, the housing shortage will continue to increase. High interest rates are causing purchase prices to stagnate once again.

Housing Price Index Q4/2025: Buying eases, renting tightens

The empirica housing price index for Q4/2025 shows a differentiated development on the German residential real estate market. Advertised purchase prices had recently recovered, benefiting from scarcity and rising incomes, but are falling or stagnating in the current quarter, depending on the segment, on average across all districts in Q4/2025. Despite stable interest rates and scarcity, these are signs of continuing uncertainty in the market.

Housing Vacancy 2024: Second Largest Decline in 20 Years

The current vacancy index shows a significant tightening of the German housing market. In 2024, the number of market-active vacant apartments in multi-family housing decreased by approximately 45,000 to 522,000 units. The nationwide vacancy rate is now only 2.2 percent. This represents the second-largest decline in the 24-year history of the survey. Vacancy rates are falling in 85 percent of all districts and independent cities.

Housing Bubble Index Q3/2025: Bubble risk decreases

All sub-indices, with the exception of the construction loans sub-index (+1 point), are down. The completions sub-index (-30 points) has fallen particularly sharply. As a result, the overall index is down across Germany (-8 points).

Housing Price Index Q3/2025: Market trends and 2025 revision

The empirica housing price index for Q3/2025 shows differentiated developments on the German residential real estate market. Despite rising interest rates, advertised purchase prices have recovered, benefiting from scarcity and higher incomes, but also from a habituation to the new interest rate level. Currently, however, increasing uncertainty (caused by the threat of cuts in household income due to the loss of competitiveness of German companies) is slowing down the elimination of scarcity.

Family migration to city outskirts is declining

Over the past 15 years, there has been a steady trend towards suburbanisation, with families moving to the outskirts of large cities. At the same time, many rural areas have benefited from the influx of families. However, recent migration patterns show a downward trend.

Major update of demographic data

The longer ago the last census was conducted, the greater the differences between the projected and actual population figures. The 2022 census has created an important adjustment here: the federal and state statistical offices have recalibrated the population projection and we have adjusted our database accordingly. From now on, you will be working with a new basis for all demographic analyses.

Housing Bubble Index Q2/2025: Rent and price come together

The empirica housing bubble index shows the regional spread of a bubble risk. The multiplier sub-index (-1 point) has declined slightly. The sub-indices for construction loans, completions and price-income remain unchanged (+/-0 points).

Housing Price Index Q2/2025: Prices rise further

The empirica housing price index for Q2/2025 shows differentiated developments on the German residential property market. In the case of existing properties, prices for detached and semi-detached houses stagnated, while condominiums recorded slight increases. Rents for existing flats rose much more sharply. In the new-build segment, prices for single-family and semi-detached homes rose more sharply, while rents increased at a similar rate to existing properties.

Housing Bubble Index Q1/2025: Bubble risk stagnates

When rents rise faster than purchase prices, it gives hope to many who dream of owning their own home. This is because buying owner-occupied property is then more worthwhile than renting. At the same time, this trend acts as a safety net for the property market: the more rents catch up with purchase prices, the lower the risk of a price collapse - the risk of a bubble decreases.

Housing Price Index Q1/2025: Purchase prices recovering?

The latest data from the empirica housing price index for Q1/2025 is available. In the last quarter, asking purchase prices for new builds rose slightly. There are now also signs of a slight increase in existing properties. Rents continued to rise, albeit at a slightly lower rate than last year.

Housing Bubble Index Q4/2024: Rents and prices come together

The empirica housing bubble index shows the regional spread of a bubble risk. The price-income (-1 pts.) and multiplier (-4 pts.) sub-indices are falling. By contrast, the construction loans sub-index (+2 pts.) is rising slightly, while the completions sub-index remains unchanged (+/- 0 pts.).

Housing Price Index Q4/2024: New builds at all-time high

The latest data from the empirica housing price index for Q4/2024 is now available. The advertised average prices for new-build apartments are thus once again setting new records, while advertised average prices for single-family homes are stagnating at a lower level. Advertised rents have remained unaffected by the crisis or have even risen consistently as a result.

empirica regio: contract rents rise slower than asking rents

Median contract rent will be EUR 7.21 per m² in 2023
Strongest increase in new contract rents in Dahme-Spreewald, lowest rents in Central Saxony
City of Munich most expensive place to live in Germany at EUR 16.30 per m² - increase of 21 per cent in five years

Housing Price Index Q3/2024: Slight decline in rental growth

The empirica housing price index is available up to Q3/2024. In the current quarter, asking prices for new builds continued to rise. Purchase prices for existing properties remained stable. The increase in rents also remained, but weakened somewhat compared to the previous quarter.

Foreign immigration remains at a high level despite decline

Immigration from abroad to Germany remains at a high level in 2023, even if it is significantly lower than in the previous year. A recent analysis by economic and property data provider empirica regio GmbH shows that Germany recorded net immigration of around 660,000 people in 2023. After almost 1.5 million net immigrants in 2022 and a good 1.1 million immigrants in 2015, this is still the third-highest figure since 1992. With a good 121,000 net immigrants, Ukrainians make up the largest group of immigrants.

Housing Bubble Index Q2/2024: Distribution stagnates

The current sharp rise in rents contrasts with the moderate increase in purchase prices. This is positive for the risk of a bubble, as the high valuation level of property is increasingly justified. At the same time, the slight fall in interest rates is leading to an increase in new lending for residential construction, which in turn harbours the potential for further price rises and thus increases the risk of a bubble.

Using regional demographic trends: the Rostock example

The example of Rostock shows how important regional population analyses are for investments in the housing market. Young adults are moving into the city, while rents are rising and vacancies are falling. Young workers and families, on the other hand, are moving to the surrounding areas or to other labor market regions. Therefore, the basic rule for investors is: They should base their strategies on solid demographic data in order to minimize risks and take advantage of opportunities.

Is the impact of energy efficiency on prices overestimated?

Various analyses have recently attempted to quantify the possible price discount on non-energy-efficient properties. Such a discount is undisputed, but the amount is probably overestimated. In a background analysis, empirica has examined more closely how this discount can be calculated on the basis of asking purchase prices.

Housing Price Index Q2/2024: Prices stable, rents rise

Purchase prices generally appear to have bottomed out and are falling more slowly than before or are already rising slightly. However, there are no uniform trends, as there are still major differences depending on the segment or region. In general, purchase prices for new builds tend to rise more than for existing properties, for condominiums (ETW) more than for single-family homes and in urban regions more than in federal states.

The 2022 census - back to square one?

On 25 June 2024, the first results of the 2022 census were published by the Federal Statistical Office. The empirica regio team has also been waiting for these results, as the census will put many important official statistics on a new footing. In this article, we would like to briefly explain what this means for the empirica regional database.

Housing Price Index Q1/2024: Bottom appears reached

The purchase prices in the empirica housing price index for Q1/2024 indicate that the bottom has been reached. This is shown by the new data from the empirica housing price index for Q1/2024. While new construction prices continue to show a stable trend, purchase prices across all years of construction should now also have reached a stable level. The first increases can already be observed across all years of construction in cities with a rather low purchase price level.

empirica Forecasts: trends up to 2045

The new empirica housing market forecasts show the demographic trends in the German housing market until 2045. If immigration to Germany does not significantly decrease, then the population will continue to rise. The empirica demand forecast shows an annual new construction demand of around 170 thousand apartments for the period 2024-27. After that, demand decreases somewhat, but in the mid-2030s there will be a small demographic upheaval, causing demand from older households to rise again.

Rent burden in Germany continues to rise

Net rents in major German cities (A-cities) are 70 per cent more expensive than 13 years ago. The rent burden for low-income households is 31 per cent across Germany. And: the development of rents is dependent on the development of incomes, particularly in the south. These are the key findings of a new study by economic and property data provider empirica regio GmbH. Our conclusion: The housing market is facing major challenges. The demand for new and affordable housing in Germany continues to grow. And: those who can, will stay in their own home.

Housing Price Index Q4/2023: Purchase prices stabilise

The data from the empirica housing price index for Q4/2024 is here. One of the results: The trend of rising rental prices continues. For new apartments, the rental prices have increased by 1.3% in the independent cities compared to the third quarter of 2023, and by 1.4% in the districts. The indices for rental apartments of all years of construction recorded an increase of 1.3%.

Significant decline in vacant flats

The annual update of the CBRE-empirica vacancy index is available and shows a significant decline in vacancies in the housing stock in 2022. The vacancy rate nationwide is now only 2.5 %. That is around 554 thousand residential units and therefore 53 thousand fewer vacant flats than in 2021. This is the biggest decline in a single year since the time series began over 20 years ago.

Housing Bubble Index Q3/2023: Fewer regions at risk

The empirica housing bubble index indicates that the risk of a housing market bubble in Germany is decreasing. In recent quarters, there has been a change: there are fewer and fewer vulnerable districts. The danger is still there, but its extent is getting smaller. The number of endangered regions has been falling for three quarters in a row.

Housing Price Index Q3/2023: How long do prices fall?

The empirica housing price index continues to show a trend of declining purchase prices for condominiums and single- or two-family houses, while the indices for rental apartments continue to rise. For newly built condominiums, the indices stabilize with an increase of 0.2% compared to the previous quarter. In contrast, the indices for newly built detached and semi-detached houses continue to decline (-0.9%). The increase in newly built rental apartments amounts to 1.2% this quarter.

Housing vacancies between urban and rural areas

In the housing policy debate around new housing, immigration, shortage of housing and urban sprawl, the issue of vacancy rarely plays a role. The vacancy rate offers important insight into the state of housing shortage in individual regions. However, a generalised view of the data alone does not help in the analysis of vacancy figures. The mutual interactions are far too complex, for example, when it comes to the regionally very different imbalance between supply and demand or migration movements from the A and B cities to more rural areas.

Housing Price Index Q2/2023: Purchase prices keep falling

The last few quarters have shown a noteworthy development on the real estate market. The indices for owner-occupied flats and detached or semi-detached houses have already fallen for the fourth quarter in a row, while rented flats recorded an increase of 1.1% compared to the previous quarter.

Refugees from Ukraine: 600,000 more households need housing

Around 1.1 million people with Ukrainian citizenship were living in Germany at the end of September.
Highest immigration rates in March, April and May with up to 375,000 people per month.
Mostly underage and well-educated people come.