For the first time in over a decade, Germany’s population is shrinking – 2025 makes it official, but our data show that the shift has already been under way since 2023 and is affecting almost all regions.
For the first time since 2011 (with the exception of the pandemic year 2020), the population fell in 2025 (‑110,000 people / ‑0.1%). The net migration gain has been shrinking rapidly since the 2022 Ukraine peak, while the natural population change remains structurally negative and has recently fallen even further. Figures available so far for the first half of 2026 suggest the trend is continuing – and even intensifying. Population decline is therefore likely to be even higher in 2026 than in the previous year. But what does this mean for the housing market?
