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2020/10/13

empirica Real Estate Price Index Q3 2020

The current empirica property price index for Q3/2020 is now available. The indices for rented and owner-occupied flats as well as single and two-family houses continue to rise across all construction years. It is still the case that rents rise significantly weaker (+1.0%) than purchase prices (ETW and EZFH each +3.5%). In the current report on the index (in German) the indices for the new construction segments are already presented in detail. For the current quarter, we therefore take a brief look at rents for existing apartments for the top 7 cities and in particular for Berlin. The data presented here refers to hedonically adjusted rents for new tenants moving into a 60-80m² flat with upscale fittings and with a construction year up to a maximum of 10 years prior to the quarter presented.

Hedonically adjusted new contractual rents in the portfolio for the top 7: Munich, Frankfurt am Main, Stuttgart, Hamburg, Cologne, Dusseldorf and Berlin in comparison


In the top 7 cities, with the exception of Berlin, rents in existing properties have risen between 1.7% (Stuttgart) and 5.7% (Hamburg) since Q3/2019. In Berlin, however, average rents fell by -1.4% over the same period. In Frankfurt am Main and especially in Munich, as the following graph shows, there was at least one "price dip" between Q2/2019 and Q2/2020. Compared to Germany as a whole (+3.4% since Q3/2020), only in Düsseldorf, Cologne and Hamburg is the relative price increase currently higher. The following map shows the current price levels for new rental contracts in existing flats as well as the relative development since the same quarter of the previous year for all districts and district-free cities.

Comparison of hedonically adjusted new contract rents in existing apartments for all districts and district-free cities


How are rents in Berlin developing?

Since Q3/2018, the average Berlin rents for residential properties in the portfolio have fallen or stagnated with slight fluctuations in the property price index. As the properties shown here refer to the years of construction up to 2010 at the most, these flats are also covered by the rent cap (where the exceptions are new constructions from 2014/1/1). From the peak value in Q3/2018 to Q3/2020, the decline amounts to -5.7% or -0.56 Euros/m² to currently 9.25 Euros/m². Since the same quarter of the previous year the relative decline has been -1.4%. In the same period, rents in the surrounding districts rose significantly by up to +8.7% in the district of Märkisch-Oderland, albeit starting from a much lower level. The city of Potsdam even recorded an increase of 11.2%. Here, a new rental agreement in Q3/2020 with an average of 10.15 Euros/m² in an existing apartment is now almost one Euro more expensive than in Berlin. Increased suburbanisation into the surrounding area of Berlin is increasingly driving up prices here. Within the administrative districts, there is also a widening gap between the surrounding area and the more distant municipalities. In the near future we will therefore take a closer look at the surrounding area and publish an analysis in our blog.

Our customers can obtain the current data of the empirica property price index from the market studio. The empirica regio housing market reports also contain the current quarterly data. Further information on the price index can also be found on the website of empirica ag.




2020/09/23

New functions in the Market Studio

Over the summer of 2020, the empirica regio market studio has received new functions, e.g. extended map functions, revised reports and additional query functions. Further updates are already being implemented and are continuously integrated into the market studio. Our goal is to make accessing all relevant data even faster and easier, so that you can go from the login to figures, maps, tables and market reports with just a few clicks. The feedback of our customers influences the development directly.

Applied for insolvency proceedings (companies) per 1,000 inhabitants in the districts and independent towns in Bavaria 2018
Screenshot: Extended map functions in the empirica regio market studio (example)

For customers who want to access our data even faster we also offer the empirica regio API. This enables efficient data integration using a JSON-based web service and thus direct access to the regional database. With the REST API, individual analyses in your own software environment are easily possible and recurring evaluation routines can be quickly automated.

Research can be so simple. Feel free to contact us.




2020/09/02

Data update and forecasts

The empirica regional database has received a comprehensive data update, which is now available to all customers. In addition to official data on population, migration, housing stock and construction activity in 2019, empirica's updated forecast of vacancies and new construction demand is now available. Regarding the methodology of the forecast you will find an article in German in our Blog.

Construction intensity for new apartments in single/two-family houses and apartment buildings in the districts in Germany

The new data and forecast results can also be found in our housing market reports, which you can purchase via the Webshop. The housing market reports cost 28.27 Euro (incl. 16% VAT). You can download a sample report here. An English version of the market report will be published soon. You can also download the free report REGIO TO GO for all districts and cities in German and English.



2020/08/11

empirica bubble index Q2 2020

empirica developed the bubble index seven years ago to show that there are no bubbles in the German real estate market. In recent years, however, the sub-indices "multiplier" and "price-income ratio" have continued to rise. In the current data for Q2/2020, the sub-index "housing loans" has now also risen noticeably. As a result, the overall index is rising across the board, both in shrinking and in growing regions, both in rural areas and in the cities.

empirica bubble index Q1/2005 - Q2/2020 for rural areas and cities

The empirica bubble index is available via our market studio and can also be found in our housing market reports. Further information on the bubble index can be found on the website of empirica.




2020/07/21

NEW: empirica regio Shop

With our new webshop we offer direct access to the empirica regio market reports. As an introduction, you will receive the reports at a price of 22.04 Euro (incl. VAT). You can download a sample report here. An English version of the market report will be published soon. The shop also offers a download of the free report REGIO TO GO for all districts and cities in English and German.

empirica regio Shop - Buy market reports online

By the way, users of the empirica regio market studio have unlimited access to all market reports and can create individual analysis with the raw data. If you would like to receive more information on this or would like a test access, then contact us.




2020/07/16

empirica real estate price index Q2 2020

The current empirica real estate price index shows: Rents and purchase prices in Germany continue to rise. The rates of increase in purchase prices are still significantly higher than the growth in rents. However Berlin is falling off the grid, because average rents for new buildings are currently stagnating and the average for re-renting existing properties is falling slightly.

Rents for apartments in new buildings 2020/Q2 - Berlin, Cologne, Munich and Hamburg

Do you need a quick overview for a district in Germany? Then take a look at our housing market reports. The entire empirica real estate price index for districts as well as aggregated regions and benchmarks (e.g. A and B cities, district types according to population development, rural or urban areas) can be obtained via the empirica regio market studio of empirica regio.

A brief analysis of the current index and further information can be found on the website of empirica.




2020/06/17

ZEIT ONLINE: The temporary end of the evermore

empirica regio has prepared a special evaluation of quoted rents from early 2019 to mid May 2020 for an article on the Berlin rent cap by ZEIT ONLINE. You can find the article here (in German). The evaluation shows that since the rent cap came into force at the end of February 2020, rents have fallen by up to 9.5% compared with January 2019, while at the same time the number of weekly advertisements has fallen by up to 40%. There is no connection with the corona crisis, as comparable declines cannot be observed in other metropolitan areas in Germany.


Development of offered rents and frequency of supply in Berlin (January 2019 to May 2020)


Comparable analyses for purchase and rental prices in selected cities in Germany can be downloaded free of charge from empirica regio GO. To do this, select a variable, click on a circle on the map or select a location using the search function. Then, in addition to further information on the selected region, you will also receive the link to the special evaluation and to our free market report REGIO TO GO. You can change the language to English at the bottom of the page.

For questions regarding the calculation and the data basis, please feel free to contact us contact us.




2020/05/25

NEW: empirica regio GO

For a quick market overview with the most important indicators for districts and district-free cities, we now offer empirica regio GO free of charge with the short report REGIO TO GO. This gives you a quick overview of population development, housing supply, income and labour market trends as well as current property prices and rents. You can change the language from German to English at the bottom of the page - so you will also receive the report in English. If you would like to access our entire database for detailed market analyses and extensive market reports, then use the empirica regio market studio.


empirica regio go - Income in Germany and income development in Berlin


In empirica regio GO you will also find a special evaluation of the development of supply on the housing market in Germany during the coronavirus recession. For this purpose we have looked at the advertised housing market of the empirica-systeme market database of the last twelve months. In March, although there was a decline in offers, no significant change in rental and purchase prices could be observed. We will update the data analysis again in May and supplement it with more up-to-date data.




2020/04/16

empirica real estate price index Q1 2020

What slowly became apparent in the last months is continuing: the rise in rents is continuing to slow down, especially in the metropolitan areas. The effects of the rent cap in Berlin are also reflected in the market data. In terms of purchase prices, however, the price increases are still continuing in the first quarter. As a result, purchase prices and rents continue to diverge.

empirica real estate price index: development of rents (existing buildings)


The effects of corona can currently only be reflected in property prices to a very limited extent, and the period since the outbreak of the crisis in Germany is too short for a detailed analysis. Two papers about the current data and the (possible) consequences of the corona crisis on the real estate market can be found on the website of empirica ag and at empirica-systeme (both in German).

The empirica real estate price index for quarters at the level of districts and district-free cities as well as aggregated regions (e.g. A and B cities, district types according to population development, rural or urban areas, regional planning regions) can be obtained from the empirica regio market studio. Further information on our services can be found in our current service profile.




2020/01/20

empirica real estate price index Q4 2019

The empirica real estate price index for the fourth quarter of 2019 is now available. The rise in purchase prices continues. In the rental price segment, however, rents in many core cities are rising less strongly than before. Some cities also show stagnating or even slightly declining rents, e.g. Munich, Erlangen, Freiburg im Breisgau or Regensburg (in each case based on all years of construction).

empirica real estate price index: rental price development


At empirica regio the data of the empirica real estate price index can be accessed on a quarterly and annual level for districts and cities as well as aggregated regions (e.g. A and B cities, district types according to population development, rural or urban areas, spatial planning regions). A brief analysis of the current data and further information on the real estate price index in German can be found on the website of empirica ag.




2019/12/06

CBRE empirica vacancy index 2019

In Germany, around 600,000 market-active multi-storey apartments were vacant in 2018. However, the regional gap in vacancy rates continues to widen: reserves in growing regions and in swarm cities continue to decline, contrasting with an increase in vacancies in shrinking regions.

CBRE empirica vacancy index: Vacancy rates 2018 for region types according to population development


The figures are based on management data from CBRE (approx. 755,000 residential units) and extensive analyses and estimates based on the empirica regional database and the Federal Statistical Office. Further information on the vacancy index can be found on the website of empirica. Also the Süddeutsche Zeitung has dealt with the data and the topic of vacancies this week. At empirica regio you can access the vacancy index and the vacancy forecast within the scope of our data licence.




2019/11/25

ZEIT ONLINE: Rents in Germany

For ZEIT ONLINE empirica regio has prepared a comprehensive analysis of rents between 2012 and 2018. The evaluation was published by ZEIT ONLINE as analysis with interactive maps and is part of the focus topic "Mieten am Limit". In addition to showing the price level in 2018, the map also shows the price development from 2012 as a diagram. More articles on this topic will be published in the coming days. The articles are available in German.

Mietpreise in Deutschland - © ZEIT ONLINE
© ZEIT ONLINE

The database for the analysis is the empirica-systeme Market Database. For questions regarding the calculation and the data basis, please contact us.




2019/10/21

empirica real estate price index Q3 2019

The rents and purchase prices for the third quarter of 2019 from the empirica real estate price index are available. While purchase prices continue to rise sharply - across Germany, the purchase prices for condominiums are rising five times faster than rents - the curves for rents in the core cities repeatedly point downwards or stagnate at a high level. Is this a sign of the end of the cycle?

Comparison of rental price development in Hamburg, Munich and Berlin Q1 2005 to Q3 2019


With our analysis tool empirica regio you can analyse the data of the empirica real estate price index in detail and this in the course of time spatially differentiated for different region types and districts. Further information on the current real estate price index can also be found at empirica ag.






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