New analysis tools available
The empirica regio market studio has new analysis tools for spontaneous evaluations or for preparing more in-depth analyses in your own software environment. With just a few clicks, different variables can be compared over time and in spatial differentiation. The ranking tool makes it possible to calculate a simple ranking with up to five indicators with just a few mouse clicks.
Housing market data Q2/2021: Rents and purchase prices continue to rise
The empirica housing price index continues to show rising prices, especially in the condominium segment (+3.2% quarter-on-quarter) and detached and semi-detached houses for sale (+2.9% quarter-on-quarter). The increase in rental flats is also positive at +1.1%, but continues to lag behind the purchase prices. In some rural districts, purchase prices, especially for existing properties, are jumping sharply. Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, there are increases of +30% to over +50% for flats, albeit from a rather low starting level.
Stopped rent cap impacts offered rents in Berlin
Until 2018, it looked as if new contract rents for flats from the existing properties in Berlin were increasingly catching up with other growing economic centres in Germany. Since the second half of 2018, however, these rents had fallen again somewhat in the empirica property price index and then remained at a relatively constant level between 9.25 and 9.35 euros/m² since the spring of 2020 when the cap began. On 25 March 2021, the Federal Constitutional Court ruled that the law on rent caps in the housing sector in Berlin (MietenWoG Bln), i.e. the "rent cap", is null and void. In the second quarter of 2021, a jump to the mid-2018 level of around 9.80 euros/m² can now be observed. In the coming months, it will now be necessary to observe more closely in which direction a new trend is forming.
How to Get Our Data
Our clients can access the current data of the empirica property price index with further time series on Berlin and other important property markets via the Market Studio. The empirica regio Housing Market Reports also contain the latest quarterly data and much more information on the respective region. Further information on the current price index can also be found on the website of empirica ag (in German).
Spring Report on the Real Estate Industry
The Spring Report on the Real Estate Industry ("Frühjahrsgutachten Immobilienwirtschaft"), written by the Council of Real Estate Experts and published by the German Property Federation ("Zentraler Immobilien Ausschuss", ZIA), has been published. (ZIA), has been published. Chapter 5 on residential real estate in rural areas was written by Prof. Dr. Harald Simons, CEO of empirica, and Constantin Tielkes and Malte Scharrenberg of empirica. The demarcation between metropolitan and rural areas was derived from the centres of the 14 largest cities with over 500,000 inhabitants on the basis of car travel time. Purchase prices for detached and semi-detached houses and migration balances were compared for different distance areas. Here, empirica regio was able to provide extensive support to the colleagues from empirica in the data preparation and provision of migration matrices with age differentiation.
The analysis shows that migration losses have stopped in rural areas and also at a greater distance from metropolitan areas. With regard to the 30 to under 45-year-olds, the authors already speak of a trend reversal in some regions. The reasons given are the increased housing costs in the metropolises, but also the shortage of skilled workers in rural areas.
The spring report can be downloaded in a complete version, an abridged version (both in German) and an English summary from the website of the German Property Federation (ZIA). Differentiated migration data and other statistics can be found in our empirica regio market studio.
Housing market data available for Q1/2021
The current empirica housing price index for Q1/2021 is available. The relative development continues as in the previous quarters: rents continue to rise, albeit slowly, and purchase prices continue to increase strongly. However, as Dr Reiner Braun, chairman of empirica and managing director at empirica regio, points out in the current report on the index, the relative increases in owner-occupied homes are approaching the relative increases in condominiums. He relates this to the higher demand in the surrounding areas of the large cities. In the rental price segment, too, as the following map shows, the highest rates of increase are to be found above all in the surrounding areas of Berlin and in some rather rural districts.
The data basis for our property prices is the VALUE market database, which until recently was called empirica-systeme market database. So it remained the same high-quality database, just under a different name.
Our clients can access the current data of the empirica housing market index via the market studio. The empirica regio Housing Market Reports also contain the latest quarterly data and much more information on the respective region. Further information on the price index can also be found on the website of empirica.
New Real Estate Market Data Available
empirica Real Estate Price Index Q4 2020
The current empirica real estate price index for Q4/2020 is now available. The indices for rental flats, owner-occupied flats and detached and semi-detached houses continue to rise, with purchase prices also continuing to rise more strongly than rents. The current analysis by empirica also shows, however, that conditions in the existing rental segment have changed somewhat over the past two years. In relation to the average in Germany, rents in the cities rose more strongly until 2018 and the districts, on the other hand, developed below average. Since 2018, this trend has reversed, with rents in the districts rising at an above-average rate and those in the independent cities at a below-average rate. The negative development of rents in existing buildings in Berlin plays a role in this, but the development of rents in existing apartment buildings in other major cities has also slowed down recently.
The determination of hedonic prices is a procedure that better takes into account changes in quality (furnishings, flat size, age of construction, etc.). This is necessary because the respective advertised housing supply can differ from quarter to quarter. The hedonics used here is based on a bottom-up approach that aggregates from 401 regressions at the district level to regional, state and national values.
How are Vacancies Developing in Multi-Storey Housing?
Shortly before Christmas, the CBRE-empirica-Vacancy-Index was published with the vacancy rates as at 31 December 2019. For the first time in 13 years, the vacancy rate nationwide has stagnated at 2.8% or around 603,000 flats. Although the vacancy rate continues to fall in the growth regions, it is also rising again in the shrinking regions. In the swarm cities, on the other hand, the vacancy reserves have been exhausted, so a further drop in vacancy rates is hardly possible.
The CBRE-empirica-vacancy-index is the only data source with information on the market-active vacancy rate in multi-storey flats in Germany. The current figures are based on management data from the real estate consultancy CBRE (around 733,000 residential units) as well as extensive analyses and estimates based on the empirica regional database and the Federal Statistical Office.
How to Get Our Data
Our clients receive the current data of the empirica property price index and the CBRE-empirica-vacancy-index via the market studio. The empirica regio Housing Market Reports also contain the most up-to-date data. Contact us for further information. The methods and data basis for the price index and the vacancy index as well as further data sets can also be found on the website of empirica ag.
empirica Real Estate Price Index Q3 2020
The current empirica property price index for Q3/2020 is now available. The indices for rented and owner-occupied flats as well as single and two-family houses continue to rise across all construction years. It is still the case that rents rise significantly weaker (+1.0%) than purchase prices (ETW and EZFH each +3.5%). In the current report on the index (in German) the indices for the new construction segments are already presented in detail. For the current quarter, we therefore take a brief look at rents for existing apartments for the top 7 cities and in particular for Berlin. The data presented here refers to hedonically adjusted rents for new tenants moving into a 60-80m² flat with upscale fittings and with a construction year up to a maximum of 10 years prior to the quarter presented.
In the top 7 cities, with the exception of Berlin, rents in existing properties have risen between 1.7% (Stuttgart) and 5.7% (Hamburg) since Q3/2019. In Berlin, however, average rents fell by -1.4% over the same period. In Frankfurt am Main and especially in Munich, as the following graph shows, there was at least one "price dip" between Q2/2019 and Q2/2020. Compared to Germany as a whole (+3.4% since Q3/2020), only in Düsseldorf, Cologne and Hamburg is the relative price increase currently higher. The following map shows the current price levels for new rental contracts in existing flats as well as the relative development since the same quarter of the previous year for all districts and district-free cities.
How are rents in Berlin developing?
Since Q3/2018, the average Berlin rents for residential properties in the portfolio have fallen or stagnated with slight fluctuations in the property price index. As the properties shown here refer to the years of construction up to 2010 at the most, these flats are also covered by the rent cap (where the exceptions are new constructions from 2014/1/1). From the peak value in Q3/2018 to Q3/2020, the decline amounts to -5.7% or -0.56 Euros/m² to currently 9.25 Euros/m². Since the same quarter of the previous year the relative decline has been -1.4%. In the same period, rents in the surrounding districts rose significantly by up to +8.7% in the district of Märkisch-Oderland, albeit starting from a much lower level. The city of Potsdam even recorded an increase of 11.2%. Here, a new rental agreement in Q3/2020 with an average of 10.15 Euros/m² in an existing apartment is now almost one Euro more expensive than in Berlin. Increased suburbanisation into the surrounding area of Berlin is increasingly driving up prices here. Within the administrative districts, there is also a widening gap between the surrounding area and the more distant municipalities. In the near future we will therefore take a closer look at the surrounding area and publish an analysis in our blog.
Our customers can obtain the current data of the empirica property price index from the market studio. The empirica regio housing market reports also contain the current quarterly data. Further information on the price index can also be found on the website of empirica ag.
New functions in the Market Studio
Over the summer of 2020, the empirica regio market studio has received new functions, e.g. extended map functions, revised reports and additional query functions. Further updates are already being implemented and are continuously integrated into the market studio. Our goal is to make accessing all relevant data even faster and easier, so that you can go from the login to figures, maps, tables and market reports with just a few clicks. The feedback of our customers influences the development directly.
For customers who want to access our data even faster we also offer the empirica regio API. This enables efficient data integration using a JSON-based web service and thus direct access to the regional database. With the REST API, individual analyses in your own software environment are easily possible and recurring evaluation routines can be quickly automated.
Research can be so simple. Feel free to contact us.
Data update and forecasts
The empirica regional database has received a comprehensive data update, which is now available to all customers. In addition to official data on population, migration, housing stock and construction activity in 2019, empirica's updated forecast of vacancies and new construction demand is now available. Regarding the methodology of the forecast you will find an article in German in our Blog.
The new data and forecast results can also be found in our housing market reports, which you can purchase via the Webshop. The housing market reports cost 28.27 Euro (incl. 16% VAT). You can download a sample report here. An English version of the market report will be published soon. You can also download the free report REGIO TO GO for all districts and cities in German and English.
empirica bubble index Q2 2020
empirica developed the bubble index seven years ago to show that there are no bubbles in the German real estate market. In recent years, however, the sub-indices "multiplier" and "price-income ratio" have continued to rise. In the current data for Q2/2020, the sub-index "housing loans" has now also risen noticeably. As a result, the overall index is rising across the board, both in shrinking and in growing regions, both in rural areas and in the cities.
NEW: empirica regio Shop
With our new webshop we offer direct access to the empirica regio market reports. As an introduction, you will receive the reports at a price of 22.04 Euro (incl. VAT). You can download a sample report here. An English version of the market report will be published soon. The shop also offers a download of the free report REGIO TO GO for all districts and cities in English and German.
By the way, users of the empirica regio market studio have unlimited access to all market reports and can create individual analysis with the raw data. If you would like to receive more information on this or would like a test access, then contact us.
empirica real estate price index Q2 2020
The current empirica real estate price index shows: Rents and purchase prices in Germany continue to rise. The rates of increase in purchase prices are still significantly higher than the growth in rents. However Berlin is falling off the grid, because average rents for new buildings are currently stagnating and the average for re-renting existing properties is falling slightly.
Do you need a quick overview for a district in Germany? Then take a look at our housing market reports. The entire empirica real estate price index for districts as well as aggregated regions and benchmarks (e.g. A and B cities, district types according to population development, rural or urban areas) can be obtained via the empirica regio market studio of empirica regio.
A brief analysis of the current index and further information can be found on the website of empirica.
ZEIT ONLINE: The temporary end of the evermore
empirica regio has prepared a special evaluation of quoted rents from early 2019 to mid May 2020 for an article on the Berlin rent cap by ZEIT ONLINE. You can find the article here (in German). The evaluation shows that since the rent cap came into force at the end of February 2020, rents have fallen by up to 9.5% compared with January 2019, while at the same time the number of weekly advertisements has fallen by up to 40%. There is no connection with the corona crisis, as comparable declines cannot be observed in other metropolitan areas in Germany.
Comparable analyses for purchase and rental prices in selected cities in Germany can be downloaded free of charge from empirica regio GO. To do this, select a variable, click on a circle on the map or select a location using the search function. Then, in addition to further information on the selected region, you will also receive the link to the special evaluation and to our free market report REGIO TO GO. You can change the language to English at the bottom of the page.
For questions regarding the calculation and the data basis, please feel free to contact us contact us.
NEW: empirica regio GO
For a quick market overview with the most important indicators for districts and district-free cities, we now offer empirica regio GO free of charge with the short report REGIO TO GO. This gives you a quick overview of population development, housing supply, income and labour market trends as well as current property prices and rents. You can change the language from German to English at the bottom of the page - so you will also receive the report in English. If you would like to access our entire database for detailed market analyses and extensive market reports, then use the empirica regio market studio.
In empirica regio GO you will also find a special evaluation of the development of supply on the housing market in Germany during the coronavirus recession. For this purpose we have looked at the advertised housing market of the empirica-systeme market database of the last twelve months. In March, although there was a decline in offers, no significant change in rental and purchase prices could be observed. We will update the data analysis again in May and supplement it with more up-to-date data.
empirica real estate price index Q1 2020
What slowly became apparent in the last months is continuing: the rise in rents is continuing to slow down, especially in the metropolitan areas. The effects of the rent cap in Berlin are also reflected in the market data. In terms of purchase prices, however, the price increases are still continuing in the first quarter. As a result, purchase prices and rents continue to diverge.
The effects of corona can currently only be reflected in property prices to a very limited extent, and the period since the outbreak of the crisis in Germany is too short for a detailed analysis. Two papers about the current data and the (possible) consequences of the corona crisis on the real estate market can be found on the website of empirica ag and at empirica-systeme (both in German).
The empirica real estate price index for quarters at the level of districts and district-free cities as well as aggregated regions (e.g. A and B cities, district types according to population development, rural or urban areas, regional planning regions) can be obtained from the empirica regio market studio. Further information on our services can be found in our current service profile.
empirica real estate price index Q4 2019
The empirica real estate price index for the fourth quarter of 2019 is now available. The rise in purchase prices continues. In the rental price segment, however, rents in many core cities are rising less strongly than before. Some cities also show stagnating or even slightly declining rents, e.g. Munich, Erlangen, Freiburg im Breisgau or Regensburg (in each case based on all years of construction).
At empirica regio the data of the empirica real estate price index can be accessed on a quarterly and annual level for districts and cities as well as aggregated regions (e.g. A and B cities, district types according to population development, rural or urban areas, spatial planning regions). A brief analysis of the current data and further information on the real estate price index in German can be found on the website of empirica ag.
CBRE empirica vacancy index 2019
In Germany, around 600,000 market-active multi-storey apartments were vacant in 2018. However, the regional gap in vacancy rates continues to widen: reserves in growing regions and in swarm cities continue to decline, contrasting with an increase in vacancies in shrinking regions.
The figures are based on management data from CBRE (approx. 755,000 residential units) and extensive analyses and estimates based on the empirica regional database and the Federal Statistical Office. Further information on the vacancy index can be found on the website of empirica. Also the Süddeutsche Zeitung has dealt with the data and the topic of vacancies this week. At empirica regio you can access the vacancy index and the vacancy forecast within the scope of our data licence.
ZEIT ONLINE: Rents in Germany
For ZEIT ONLINE empirica regio has prepared a comprehensive analysis of rents between 2012 and 2018. The evaluation was published by ZEIT ONLINE as analysis with interactive maps and is part of the focus topic "Mieten am Limit". In addition to showing the price level in 2018, the map also shows the price development from 2012 as a diagram. More articles on this topic will be published in the coming days. The articles are available in German.
© ZEIT ONLINE
The database for the analysis is the empirica-systeme Market Database. For questions regarding the calculation and the data basis, please contact us.
empirica real estate price index Q3 2019
The rents and purchase prices for the third quarter of 2019 from the empirica real estate price index are available. While purchase prices continue to rise sharply - across Germany, the purchase prices for condominiums are rising five times faster than rents - the curves for rents in the core cities repeatedly point downwards or stagnate at a high level. Is this a sign of the end of the cycle?
With our analysis tool empirica regio you can analyse the data of the empirica real estate price index in detail and this in the course of time spatially differentiated for different region types and districts. Further information on the current real estate price index can also be found at empirica ag.