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February 3, 2023

empirica Forecasts 2023/2024

With the annual update of the forecasts by empirica and empirica regio, current data on the development of population, households, demand for new buildings and vacancies up to 2035 are now available for all districts.

The war in Ukraine and the resulting refugee movement will lead to a strong increase in the population in Germany. The figures available for 2022 were updated in the new forecast in a separate scenario and added to the three model scenarios. By 2023, the population will have increased by 1.5 additional million persons compared to December 2021. In addition, the population is expected to increase by between 166,000 and 307,000 persons by 2023 due to demographic development and other immigration.

empirica Population Forecast 2023 - Three Scenarios with and without Ukraine in Comparison

The harmonised population forecast based on various official forecasts is the basis for the regional forecasts of household numbers, new construction demand and vacancy rates. The empirica housing market forecast provides an estimate for the additional demand for housing (new construction demand). The new construction required to satisfy new construction demand differs in the various scenarios. This is based on changes in the demographic structure and, in the short term, additional demand from refugees from Ukraine.

empirica Housing Market Forecast 2023/2024 - Three Scenarios in Comparison

Studies for download

Detailed results and further information on the methodology can be found in two current publications on the forecasts, which are available for download on the empirica ag website (both in German):

  • Jan Grade (2023): empirica Bevölkerungsprognose 2023. Regionalisierte Prognose in drei Varianten bis 2035 und Zusatzprognose der Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine.
    Download (extern): empirica-Paper Nr. 270. 
  • Dr. Reiner Brau, Jan Grade (2023): Wohnungsmarktprognose 2023. Regionalisierte Prognose in drei Varianten mit Ausblick bis 2035.
    Download (extern): empirica-Paper Nr. 271 
forecast demography housing market 2023
Families are drawn further into the suburbs

Families are drawn further into the suburbs

A look at migration within Germany shows: The basic trends were indicated years ago. While the big cities are losing more and more in internal migration, the districts and small independent cities in Germany are gaining more and more. Another turning point could be immigration due to the war in Ukraine.
Top 7 cities are shrinking

Top 7 cities are shrinking

The top 7 cities in Germany show shrinking tendencies. In 2021, most metropolises again recorded negative net migration. This continues the shrinking trend of the past years. This is shown by figures from the economic and real estate data provider empirica regio.
Employment boost from Tesla in the Oder-Spree district - rents and purchase prices increased more strongly

Employment boost from Tesla in the Oder-Spree district - rents and purchase prices increased more strongly

Ever since Tesla chose Grünheide as the site for its fourth Gigafactory, it has been clear: the previously little-noticed region around the little speck-belt town of 8,000 inhabitants in the east of Berlin is now seen as one that will be boosted and transformed in many ways. Grünheide’s mayor described the Tesla settlement as “winning the lottery”.