February 3, 2023

empirica Forecasts 2023/2024

With the annual update of the forecasts by empirica and empirica regio, current data on the development of population, households, demand for new buildings and vacancies up to 2035 are now available for all districts.

The war in Ukraine and the resulting refugee movement will lead to a strong increase in the population in Germany. The figures available for 2022 were updated in the new forecast in a separate scenario and added to the three model scenarios. By 2023, the population will have increased by 1.5 additional million persons compared to December 2021. In addition, the population is expected to increase by between 166,000 and 307,000 persons by 2023 due to demographic development and other immigration.

The harmonised population forecast based on various official forecasts is the basis for the regional forecasts of household numbers, new construction demand and vacancy rates. The empirica housing market forecast provides an estimate for the additional demand for housing (new construction demand). The new construction required to satisfy new construction demand differs in the various scenarios. This is based on changes in the demographic structure and, in the short term, additional demand from refugees from Ukraine.

Studies for download

Detailed results and further information on the methodology can be found in two current publications on the forecasts, which are available for download on the empirica ag website (both in German):

  • Jan Grade (2023): empirica Bevölkerungsprognose 2023. Regionalisierte Prognose in drei Varianten bis 2035 und Zusatzprognose der Geflüchteten aus der Ukraine.
    Download (extern): empirica-Paper Nr. 270. 
  • Dr. Reiner Brau, Jan Grade (2023): Wohnungsmarktprognose 2023. Regionalisierte Prognose in drei Varianten mit Ausblick bis 2035.
    Download (extern): empirica-Paper Nr. 271