demography

At the end of 2024, the German housing market recorded a total vacancy of around 1.7 million dwellings, corresponding to a vacancy rate of 4.0 per cent. Of the total 1.689 million vacant dwellings, 963,000 units were in apartment buildings and 727,000 in single-family and two-family houses. The situation remains particularly critical in regions experiencing population decline, where the vacancy rate could exceed the 20% threshold by the mid-2030s.

According to the new empirica population forecast, the number of inhabitants will change from around 83.6 million in 2024 to 80.3 million in the lower variant and 86.3 million in the upper variant in 2045. The empirica demand forecast shows an annual demand for new construction of around 225,000 apartments for the period 2025-32. From the mid-2030s, demand will rise to around 260,000 units per year.

Over the past 15 years, there has been a steady trend towards suburbanisation, with families moving to the outskirts of large cities. At the same time, many rural areas have benefited from the influx of families. However, recent migration patterns show a downward trend.

The longer ago the last census was conducted, the greater the differences between the projected and actual population figures. The 2022 census has created an important adjustment here: the federal and state statistical offices have recalibrated the population projection and we have adjusted our database accordingly. From now on, you will be working with a new basis for all demographic analyses.

The example of Rostock shows how important regional population analyses are for investments in the housing market. Young adults are moving into the city, while rents are rising and vacancies are falling. Young workers and families, on the other hand, are moving to the surrounding areas or to other labor market regions. Therefore, the basic rule for investors is: They should base their strategies on solid demographic data in order to minimize risks and take advantage of opportunities.

On 25 June 2024, the first results of the 2022 census were published by the Federal Statistical Office. The empirica regio team has also been waiting for these results, as the census will put many important official statistics on a new footing. In this article, we would like to briefly explain what this means for the empirica regional database.

The new empirica housing market forecasts show the demographic trends in the German housing market until 2045. If immigration to Germany does not significantly decrease, then the population will continue to rise. The empirica demand forecast shows an annual new construction demand of around 170 thousand apartments for the period 2024-27. After that, demand decreases somewhat, but in the mid-2030s there will be a small demographic upheaval, causing demand from older households to rise again.

In the housing policy debate around new housing, immigration, shortage of housing and urban sprawl, the issue of vacancy rarely plays a role. The vacancy rate offers important insight into the state of housing shortage in individual regions. However, a generalised view of the data alone does not help in the analysis of vacancy figures. The mutual interactions are far too complex, for example, when it comes to the regionally very different imbalance between supply and demand or migration movements from the A and B cities to more rural areas.

• Around 1.1 million people with Ukrainian citizenship were living in Germany at the end of September.
• Highest immigration rates in March, April and May with up to 375,000 people per month.
• Mostly underage and well-educated people come.

With the annual update of the forecasts by empirica and empirica regio, current data on the development of population, households, demand for new buildings and vacancies up to 2035 are now available for all districts.

A look at migration within Germany shows: The basic trends were indicated years ago. While the big cities are losing more and more in internal migration, the districts and small independent cities in Germany are gaining more and more. Another turning point could be immigration due to the war in Ukraine.

The top 7 cities in Germany show shrinking tendencies. In 2021, most metropolises again recorded negative net migration. This continues the shrinking trend of the past years. This is shown by figures from the economic and real estate data provider empirica regio.

Ever since Tesla chose Grünheide as the site for its fourth Gigafactory, it has been clear: the previously little-noticed region around the little speck-belt town of 8,000 inhabitants in the east of Berlin is now seen as one that will be boosted and transformed in many ways. Grünheide’s mayor described the Tesla settlement as “winning the lottery”.

The economic and real estate data provider empirica regio GmbH has determined the per capita residential space consumption of all German municipalities with 400 or more inhabitants. Almost 9,000 municipalities and 107 independent cities were analysed. The results show that popular holiday destinations in particular consume a lot of living space per inhabitant, but people in rural regions also have a particularly large amount of living space at their disposal. In the German metropolitan areas, on the other hand, people are moving closer together and living on less living space.

In 2008, an article in the German journal Informationen zur Raumentwicklung (Information on spatial development) posed the question Suburbanisation … and no end in sight? 1 In 2021, this question can still be asked in exactly the same way, albeit against the backdrop of a completely different housing market situation than 13 years ago. Back then, the focus was on shrinkage, whereas today it is on the growing pains of cities.