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At the end of 2024, the German housing market recorded a total vacancy of around 1.7 million dwellings, corresponding to a vacancy rate of 4.0 per cent. Of the total 1.689 million vacant dwellings, 963,000 units were in apartment buildings and 727,000 in single-family and two-family houses. The situation remains particularly critical in regions experiencing population decline, where the vacancy rate could exceed the 20% threshold by the mid-2030s.

According to the new empirica population forecast, the number of inhabitants will change from around 83.6 million in 2024 to 80.3 million in the lower variant and 86.3 million in the upper variant in 2045. The empirica demand forecast shows an annual demand for new construction of around 225,000 apartments for the period 2025-32. From the mid-2030s, demand will rise to around 260,000 units per year.

Rising rents and a slump in new construction are slowing down the risk of a bubble, but housing prices are still not completely out of the woods. All sub-indices are declining. The sub-index for price-income (-2 points) shows the sharpest decline. In contrast to the last quarter, however, there are only moderate changes across all indices. The overall index declines marginally (-1 point).

The independent economic and social science research and consulting institute empirica has published its first housing market report. It provides a comprehensive outlook on the housing market in 2026. The study focuses on demand, supply and price developments. New construction has collapsed, while rents are rising. Despite stagnating population figures, the housing shortage will continue to increase. High interest rates are causing purchase prices to stagnate once again.

The empirica housing market index for Q4/2025 shows a differentiated development on the German residential real estate market. Advertised purchase prices had recently recovered, benefiting from scarcity and rising incomes, but are falling or stagnating in the current quarter, depending on the segment, on average across all districts in Q4/2025. Despite stable interest rates and scarcity, these are signs of continuing uncertainty in the market.

The current vacancy index shows a significant tightening of the German housing market. In 2024, the number of market-active vacant apartments in multi-family housing decreased by approximately 45,000 to 522,000 units. The nationwide vacancy rate is now only 2.2 percent. This represents the second-largest decline in the 24-year history of the survey. Vacancy rates are falling in 85 percent of all districts and independent cities.