Housing market data Q4/2025: Some breathing room when buying – pressure when renting

The empirica housing market index for Q4/2025 shows a differentiated development on the German residential real estate market. Advertised purchase prices had recently recovered, benefiting from scarcity and rising incomes, but are falling or stagnating in the current quarter, depending on the segment, on average across all districts in Q4/2025. Despite stable interest rates and scarcity, these are signs of continuing uncertainty in the market.

In the new-build sector, advertised prices for single-family homes fell by 0.8% in Q4 2025 compared with the previous quarter. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, the trend is slightly up at 0.4%. The index for new-build condominiums remained stable at 0.0%. The increase compared to the previous year is 2.6%. The index for existing single-family homes fell slightly in Q4 2025. The decline compared to the previous quarter is 0.5%, while compared to the same quarter of the previous year, there is an increase of 1.9%. The index for ETWs fell minimally by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter (Q3 2025), with growth of 2.5% for the whole year as of Q4 2024.

At the same time, economic uncertainty is slowing down efforts to eliminate the shortage, with new construction showing only tentative signs of recovery in the form of a cautious increase in permits. Rents for new construction are currently rising by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, while the increase compared to the same quarter last year is 4.0%. The indices for existing rental apartments are rising slightly more strongly, at 0.9% compared to the previous quarter, and the year-on-year increase is also slightly higher, at 4.4% compared to Q4 2024.

Prices for new buildings will tend to continue to rise in 2026, as they are capped by production costs or projects are not feasible. For existing properties, price developments depend heavily on the condition of the building and its energy efficiency: the greater the need for renovation, the greater the price reduction, although there is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding future regulations and subsidies.

Data basis empirica housing market index

All empirica housing market index data  can be obtained as individual data sets or via database access from empirica regio. Further figures can be found in the quarterly publication on the index.